Friday, August 17, 2012

Highlighting a Play For Dont'a Hightower

Before the 2012 draft, I wrote a post pointing out that the only spot on defense that was fundamentally sound with clear starters and sufficient depth was the inside linebacker spot. Then the Patriots drafted Dont'a Hightower in the first round. Now while I didn't understand what the Patriots plan was, they clearly had one. Once training camp started, two things became apparent that I was not expecting: first, the Patriots were staying in a 4-3 base; and second, they were moving Rob Ninkovich from Sam linebacker to left defensive end. I like this move for a lot of reasons, but I would like to highlight an idea that I immediately thought of when considering this situation. Below I'm going to diagram a play, that while it is in no way revolutionary, it becomes particularly more viable and effective for the Patriots this year, with the addition of Hightower, compared to last year.


First off, the defensive personnel:
Defensive Tackles: 75, Vince Wilford (1-technique); 98, Jonathan Fanene (3-technique)
Defensive Ends: 95, Chandler Jones (9-technique); 50, Rob Ninkovich (7-technique)
Linebackers: 51, Jerod Mayo (Will); 55, Brandon Spikes (Mike); Dont'a Hightower (Sam)
Safeties: 25, Patrick Chung (Strong); 28, Steve Gregory (Free)
Cornerbacks: 21, Ras-I Dowling (Right), 32, Devin McCourty (Left)


The Green Rectangle highlights the heavy pressure the Patriots have to stop the run. Ultimately, the fullback will have to make choice, accentuated by the Orange Circles.

The initial call in the offensive huddle is a Power-O Man Blocking Run to the strong (right) side. When they line up, however, the QB sees 8 men in the box ready to defend the run. The play calls for right guard, right tackle and tight end to push Wilfork (DT, 75), Ninkovich (DE, 50), and Hightower (SLB, 45), respectively, away from the B gap; the center and left tackle to prevent the backside pursuit by Fanene (DT, 98) and Jones (DE, 95); and the left guard to pull and enter the right B gap hitting Chung (SS, 25), followed by the fullback who then has a choice (highlighted by the orange circles): take on Mayo (WLB, 51) in the backfield or Spikes (MLB, 55) in the hole. Either way one will be free to pursue the running back unblocked, along with Gregory (FS, 28) who would be conservatively approaching the hole to make the tackle in case someone misses. Overall, this play gives the advantage to the defense, as at least two men should be free to make a play on the running back.

The Dotted Red Lines represent man coverage responsibility. The Yellow Boxes indicate the advantage for the offense.

So the quarterback audibles to a pass play. In particular, one that will take advantage of the single high safety. By sending two deep routes, one of them should be in single coverage. To prevent this, Chung and Hightower (SS, 25 and SLB, 45) are double covering the tight end with inside-outside leverage, but if the tight end is quick and can get behind Chung with his speed, Gregory (FS, 28) cannot choose correctly between the tight end post route or the right wide receiver running a go. Furthermore, Dowling (CB, 21) is on an island with the left receiver in a difficult position particularly for a well timed comeback. Finally, the running back would draw man coverage from the Spikes (MLB, 55) streaking towards the sidelines where a simple check down throw could produce a large gain due to so many people back pedaling. In terms of pass protection, the fullback stays to block the blitzing Mayo (WLB, 51) leaving 6 offensive players to block 5 defensive players, with Wilfork double teamed. Seemingly, this play gives multiple advantages to the offense both in where to go with the ball and in pass protection.

The Red Boxes indicate defensive zones, the Blue Boxes indicate an good opportunity for an interception, and again the Yellow Boxes indicate an advantage for the offense.

After the snap, however, the defense backs off into a Zone Blitz with 2 Deep Shell, with Chung (SS, 25) sinking quickly to get over the right wide receiver and Gregory (FS, 28) shifting over to the left wide receiver. Now Dowling (CB, 21) can play underneath and is in great position to pick off a pass on the comeback route, and McCourty (CB, 32) will have help on the go route. Ninkovich (DE, 50) and Mayo (WLB, 51) hard step inside to get the offensive right tackle and full back to get into their pass protection set, but then back into an underneath coverage zone. Hightower (SLB, 45) comes on a blitz, ignoring the TE acting like a 9-technique defensive end rushing the passer, hopefully beating the tackle who is out of position trying to block Ninkovich (DE, 50). Spikes (MLB, 55) has to back pedal into a deep zone, similar to a Tampa-2 defense, to protect against a pass over the middle. The same 6 offensive players are blocking, but only 4 defensive players are rushing and if all goes well there will still be a (semi-)unblocked rusher, Hightower (SLB, 45).

The correct decision here is the tight end over the middle, if he can get behind Spikes (MLB, 55), the advantage goes to the offense. This play puts a lot of strain on both Spikes (MLB, 55) and Ninkovich to drop quickly and be ready for the post route. Furthermore, Chung (SS, 25) also needs to move quickly to get in position. Ninkovich (DE, 50) must also stay disciplined and tackle well against the running back going into the flat should the quarterback dump it off. He should have help from McCourty (CB, 32) as well.

The purpose of the play is to create confusion while getting more defenders dropping into coverage and still effectively applying pressure to the quarterback with Hightower (SLB, 45). While the tight end is most likely the correct decision for the quarterback, it is a difficult one to make if Hightower (SLB, 45) can get to the quarterback quickly. If thrown too quickly to the tight end, Spikes (MLB, 55) and Ninkovich (DE, 50) should be in great position to make a play. If thrown to the left wide receiver, without understanding the coverage, a pick is very likely. Finally, trying to force it into the double coverage of the right wide receiver would also be difficult.

What makes this play relevant in terms of the Patriots 2012 personnel, specifically, is that it takes advantage of Ninkovich’s good coverage skills for a defensive end (compared to say Shaun Ellis or Brandon Deaderick who would have been in that spot last year), and replaces his pass rushing skills with a relatively equal skill set in Hightower, who showed competency pass rushing in Alabama's nickel package.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: DT Kyle Love


Restricted Free Agent in 2013

Kyle Love is currently operating under an exclusive rights free agent tender, which in concept draws similarities to the franchise tag or a restricted free agent tender, but is worth significantly less, $540,000 to be precise. Under this contract, no other teams are allowed to negotiate with Love and so the Patriots are not in a rush to extend him this offseason. But I would expect him to have a deal locking him up for years to come before the end of the season.

Youth along the defensive line is a valuable commodity and Love is definitely the most promising of the Patriots several young defensive tackles. Ron Brace, a second round pick in the 2009 draft, has struggled to see the field, is on the roster bubble and, so far, has largely been considered a bust; whereas Myron Pryor, a sixth round pick in the same draft, has shown flashes of brilliance, but cannot stay healthy enough to contribute consistently.

Love started 13 of the 16 regular season games last season at defensive tackle next to Vince Wilfork. He finished with 33 total tackles and 3 sacks.

Proposed Long-Term Contract: $10.5M/4 years, $3M guaranteed
Possible Restricted Free Agent Tender: First round: $2.7M, Second Round: $1.9M

Monday, August 13, 2012

Defensive Front Seven

First I would like to preface this post with a reminder that I do not consider myself an expert on these concepts and I am attempting to summarize the many articles I have read on the subject. Furthermore, most of these statements are generalizations that do not apply to every NFL snap. The NFL, particularly defense, is all about creating confusion by adding atypical assignments to the typical personnel. Any questions or corrections can be addressed in the comments.

You frequently hear, particularly during the offseason, of team switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 or vice versa. But ultimately, there are seven players playing near the line of scrimmage, so what is the difference? Why are some players considered 4-3 defensive ends and others are 3-4 defensive ends? What is a "Sam" or "Mike" backer? I would like to answer these questions and more by going over each scheme and each position highlighting their responsibilities on both run downs and passing downs and which player on the Patriots I would consider the starter at that position. I will not go into sub packages such as nickel and dime defenses. Many of the terms in this article are explained in this post, and will be cataloged in the glossary.

Furthermore, if you are confused by my descriptions I highly recommend the following articles for further reading:

Pro Football Focus: Defensive LineLinebackers
Bleacher Report (slightly different terminology)
Wikipedia: 3-4 & 4-3

To start off, I want to get explain some terminology with the help of the figure below. The position where a defensive lineman stands before the snap is called his "technique," the red numbers. Starting from the center and moving outward they range from 0 to 9. Typically, the size (see: weight) of the defensive player decreases as the technique increases, due to the fact the perimeter players need more speed to play in space and the center players are there to clog running lanes and occupy blockers. The offensive line gaps are shown in yellow letters and similarly start at the center and increase outwards. The weak and strong side refer to which side is the "offensive strength," i.e. which side the tight end (TE) is on.  This base offense is in a Pro-I-Weak formation; Pro, the quarterback (QB) is under center, I, there are two running backs aligned, Weak, the fullback (FB) is shifted to the offensive weak side.
The Red Numbers are the Defensive Lineman Technique. The Yellow Letters are the Offensive Line Gaps. The Circled Letters are the Offensive Positions.

3-4
A 3-4 stands for 3 down lineman, a nose tackle and two defensive ends, and 4 linebackers, two inside and two outside. In a three man front, particularly under Belichick, the defensive lineman have a two gap responsibility, i.e. the gaps on either side of the offensive lineman they are in front of. The lineman are taught to read and react, by standing up their offensive lineman, reading where the play is going, shed their blocker, and pursue the ball carrier. Furthermore, they frequently require double teams which free up the prowling linebackers to get upfield and make a play. 3-4 defensive lineman do not frequently rack up gaudy stats like sacks, but their presence is shown by making average linebackers good, and good ones great. In general, the 3-4 is built around the massive defensive lineman making the quick, athletic linebackers' lives easier.
A prefix of an R or L designates the defensive right or left side, respectively.
Nose Tackle:
Nose tackles are simply immense. Wilfork, the Patriots' starting nose tackle over the past several years, is listed as ~330 lbs, although most people agree it is probably closer to 350.

Depth Chart: Vince Wilfork (1st round, 2004), Kyle Love (undrafted, 2010), Ron Brace (2nd round, 2009)

Run Defense: In run defense, the nose tackle is the first line of defense. He uses his huge size and elite strength to take complete command of the center and control both A gaps. A team like the Jets who has an equally elite center in Nick Mangold, will often leave this a one-on-one match up, but other teams may need to add a guard to hold him back. This is the best case scenario, as 1) it closes one of the A gaps completely removing it as a running lane, and 2) it removes a potential blocker allowing linebackers to more easily pursue the ball carrier.

Pass Defense: A textbook example of what you want your nose tackle to do against the pass was last years AFC Championship game against the Ravens. That was one of Wilfork's best games of his career. The best way to disrupt a quarterback, particularly a pocket passer like Flacco, is to move him off out of the pocket. Wilfork consistently pushed the Ravens' center back into Flacco's lap which caused him to shift, either to throw on the move, or into the pressure from other defensive players.

Defensive End:
A two-gapping 3-4 defensive end is closer in size to a 4-3 defensive tackle, than a 4-3 defensive end. Like nose tackles, they are a large group of people, typically around 300 lbs, and are trying to occupy space as opposed to penetrate. Richard Seymour was the Patriots' star RDE until he was traded to the Oakland Raiders. Since then, the Patriots had trouble replacing him and I believe it was a significant reason why the Patriots switched to a 4-3 last season.

Depth Chart: Gerrard Warren (12-year veteran FA, signed 2010), Jonathan Fanene (8-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Brandon Deaderick (7th round, 2010), Justin Francis (undrafted, 2012), Myron Pryor (6th round, 2009), Marcus Harrison (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Marcus Forston (undrafted 2012)

Run Defense: "Occupy space" is the keyword in run defense. By controlling the tackle (or sometimes guard), the defensive end can read the play, shed the block and make the tackle. If not, he can force the runner to cut back, hopefully, into the linebacker ready to make the tackle.

Pass Defense: The main responsibility of a defensive end in pass defense is containment, especially against a mobile quarterback like Tebow. Typically, on passing snaps one or both of the outside linebackers will be rushing the passer, who will be blocked by an offensive tackle. The offensive guard, therefore, is in charge of blocking the defensive end. If the nose tackle can push the quarterback out of the pocket, he will end up right in the defensive end's lap. Furthermore, by staying disciplined, the defensive end can be ready for a draw play (the quarterback gives a delayed handoff to the running back).


Inside Linebacker:
Inside linebackers in a 3-4 have to be very well-rounded players. They need to do just about everything well: cover, blitz, tackle, read, and most importantly lead. Frequently, one of the inside linebackers will have a headset in his helmet connected to the defensive coordinator calling the defensive plays. For the past 4 years, Jerod Mayo has been played this role as the "quarterback of the defense".

Depth Chart: Jerod Mayo (1st round, 2008), Brandon Spikes (2nd round, 2010), Dont'a Hightower (1st round, 2012), Dane Fletcher (undrafted, 2010), Bobby Carpenter (7-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Niko Koutouvides (9-year veteran FA, signed 2011), Tracy White (10-year veteran, traded 2010), Jeff Tarpinian (undrafted, 2011), Mike Rivera (2-year veteran, signed 2011)

Run Defense: Even though inside linebackers have to do a lot, their bread and butter is run defense. They read the running back and then hit the gap hard meeting any blocker or running back hard. Vicious hitters like Ray Lewis of the Ravens and Patrick Willis of the 49ers have become NFL stars due their ability to find the hole in the offensive line and make explosive plays in the run game.

Pass Defense: While inside backers can be sent on a blitz, they typically drop into coverage. Over the past several years, Belichick has sent inside linebackers on a blitz only 10% of the time. Instead, in man coverage, they match up against running backs. Without a linebacker with good "sideline-to-sideline" speed, defenses can easily get gashed for a huge yardage on a simple dump off play to a running back running towards the sideline. In zone coverage, they are responsible for intermediate throws over the middle. Because these linebackers are so ready to attack the line of scrimmage to tackle a running back, they are frequently the most affected by play action plays, leaving the zone they are responsible for wide open.


Outside Linebacker:
Outside linebackers in a 3-4, particularly the right outside linebacker, are the teams top pass rushers. James Harrison of the Steelers, Tamba Hali of the Chiefs, and Clay Matthews of the Packers are all NFL elite pass rushers at the outside linebacker position. They are typically the tallest players on defense (6'3"-6'5") with long arms to combat offensive tackles equally long arms. They need a combination of speed to rush the passer, strength to shed blocks in the run game, and quickness to drop into coverage.

Depth Chart: Chandler Jones (1st round, 2012), Rob Ninkovich (7-year veteran FA, signed 2009), Trevor Scott (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Jake Bequette (3rd round, 2012), Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round, 2010)

Run Defense: In run support, outside linebackers will usually be blocked by a tight end whom they must jack up and shed if the run heads in their direction. If the run is to the opposite side and there is no tight end to block them (weak side outside linebacker), they use their quickness to pursue from the back side to tackle from behind, but must be careful not to be too aggressive and over pursue allowing a cut back.

Pass Defense: Pass rush. The defensive ends provide containment, the nose tackle pushs the quarterback out, and the outside linebackers get after the quarterback. Although they will frequently drop into coverage too, in 2010, when they ran a 3-4 as their base defense, Belichick sent at least one outside linebacker over 80% of the time. Now that may have been a product of their awful defense and inability to get pressure with just three lineman, but that is not against the norm, particularly in today's pass happy NFL. In zone coverage, outside linebackers are responsible for either the flat (outside short area 0-4 yards off the line of scrimmage) or the outside intermediate area (5-12 yards off the line of scrimmage). Whereas, they typically are asked to cover tight ends in man coverage.


4-3
A 4-3 stands for 4 down lineman, two defensive tackles and two defensive ends, and 3 linebackers, the Mike, Sam, and Will linebackers. In a four man front, the defensive lineman have a one gap responsibility. This is a slightly more aggressive approach as it typically sends all four lineman through a specified gap attempting to penetrate to disrupt running plays or get pressure on the quarterback, imposing the defenses will on the offense, as opposed to reacting to it. Also, the line is less symmetric with respect to the offensive formation compared to the 3-4.

Again, a prefix of an R or L designates the defensive right or left side, respectively.

Defensive Tackle:
Like the interior lineman in a 3-4, 4-3 defensive tackles are typically around 300 lbs. But instead of standing up their offensive lineman and shedding their blocks after reading the play, they instead rely on their quick first step to create a sudden burst past their lineman. The defensive tackles play as a 1- and a 3- technique, responsible for an A and a B gap, respectively. The best lineman have a wide variety of tactics to win their one-on-one battles, including the swim, just as it sounds swinging the arms like the forward stroke to get behind the offensive lineman, the bull rush, getting under the opponents pads and rocking him back onto his heels then pushing him backwards, or the spin move, catching the lineman leaning and then spinning past him into the backfield.

Depth Chart: Vince Wilfork (1st round, 2004), Kyle Love (undrafted, 2010), Jonathan Fanene (8-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Brandon Deaderick (7th round, 2010), Ron Brace (2nd round, 2009), Myron Pryor (6th round, 2009), Gerrard Warren (12-year veteran FA, signed 2010), Marcus Forston (undrafted 2012), Marcus Harrison (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012)

Run/Pass Defense: For defensive tackles, the goal is usually the same regardless of a run or a pass play: get into the backfield and disrupt the play. In general, these defensive lineman have fewer reads of the offense and instead try impose their strengths to make the offense react. There are wrinkles, such as stunts where two lineman switch gaps after the snap trying to confuse the offensive lineman or a tackle dropping into a shallow zone coverage, but ultimately tackles try to get in the backfield and cause problems.


Defensive End:
4-3 defensive ends are slightly leaner than their 3-4 counterparts, between 260 and 280 lbs. They too focus mostly on getting behind their respective lineman utilizing many of the same moves. The spin move was practically patented by pass rushing extraordinaire Dwight Freeney of the Indianapolis Colts. The defensive ends play as a 7- and a 9- technique, responsible for either both C gaps, or a C and a D gap, respectively.

Depth Chart: Chandler Jones (1st round, 2012), Rob Ninkovich (7-year veteran FA, signed 2009), Jake Bequette (3rd round, 2012), Trevor Scott (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round, 2010), Justin Francis (undrafted, 2012)

Run/Pass Defense: Similarly to defensive tackles, defensive ends' mantra is get into the backfield to apply pressure. In the run game, they are responsible for containment to prevent outside runs. In the passing game, these are the teams top pass rushers, similar to the OLB in a 3-4. Some defenses, such as the Philadelphia Eagles have both of their defensive ends as 9-techniques, which makes them incredibly difficult to block on passing downs, but creates larger gaps in the run game which puts stress on the outside linebackers. Not surprisingly, the Eagles were tied for the league lead in sacks.


Weakside (WILL) Linebacker:
The Will backer is the coverage coverage backer. The smallest of the three linebackers, he is the most likely to drop into man or zone and use his speed to track down running backs in the open space or step in front of shifty slot receivers.

Depth Chart: Jerod Mayo (1st round, 2008), Tracy White (10-year veteran, traded 2010), Mike Rivera (2-year veteran, signed 2011)

Run Defense:
 In gap assignment, the Will will be in charge of the weak-side B gap, but can also go over the top of the defense if the run is to the opposite side. As always, over pursuit over the top can be dangerous as a cut back to the now undefended gap can lead to big plays.

Pass Defense: The Will backer is the most free range in coverage. His speed is his greatest asset. Due to the tight end being on the opposite side of the formation, the Will usually is in charge of the running back or full back in man coverage, while protecting the middle of the field in zone. The Will may also have the freedom to rush the passer from a variety of places, although Belichick prefers him to stay in coverage. He sent Jerod Mayo, the start Will backer in 2011, on pass rushing snaps only 11% of the time despite having significant success when he was sent.


Middle (MIKE) Linebacker:
The Mike backer is a "thumper." The run stopper. The guy that loves to hit hard.

Depth Chart: Brandon Spikes (2nd round, 2010), Dane Fletcher (undrafted, 2010), Jeff Tarpinian (undrafted, 2011)

Run Defense: In gap assignment, the Mike backer gets the strong-side A gap. He is ready to get "downhill" and shoot into the backfield, knock off a blocker, and make a tackle on inside runs.

Pass Defense: In standard zone defense, like a Cover 2, the Mike backer covers the intermediate routes over the middle of the field. However, in the Tampa-2, there is significant more strain on the Mike to drop quickly into a much deeper zone to prevent the seam route (a route Gronkowski lives off of) that is able to defeat the Cover 2 if run properly. In man coverage, it is more common for the Mike to cover either the running back or full back. The Mike blitz was also rarely used last year, ~15% of the time.


Strongside (SAM) Linebacker:
The Sam is the pass rusher of the three. The largest and best equipped to take on offensive tackles or pass blocking tight ends, the Sam backer will use a combination of power and speed to get after the quarterback. He will also typically be the closest to the line of scrimmage.

Depth Chart: Dont'a Hightower (1st round, 2012), Bobby Carpenter (7-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Niko Koutouvides (9-year veteran FA, signed 2011)

Run Defense: In gap assignment, the Sam will get the strong side C or D gap depending on whichever one the defensive end doesn't hit.

Pass Defense: In man coverage, the Sam backer will often cover the tight end; whereas in zone he will cover outside short-intermediate routes. But most frequently, particularly under Belichick, the Sam will go after the quarterback. Rob Ninkovich, the starting Sam backer in 2011, rushed the passer 64% of passing plays.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: WR/PR Julian Edelman

 Source: Nick Laham/Getty Images North America
Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013


I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating, Julian Edelman has been one of my favorite Patriots players for a few reasons. To start, he embodies the "do your job" mantra of Belichick, no more evident than this past year when he channeled his inner Troy Brown and made significant contributions in all three phases of the game: offense (wide receiver), defense (slot cornerback), and special teams (punt returner). But what really does it for me, is his complete immersion into the other Boston sports. ESPNBoston's Patriots page has a twitter feed with several players, including Edelman, and I am always pleasantly surprised with how genuinely interested he is the other teams.

Now his love of the other Boston sports teams has absolutely nothing to do with his contract situation, but his embodiment of Belichick's mantra does. Edelman has not particularly impressed as a receiver, 11 receptions for 120 yards over the past two years, after his promising rookie season, 37 receptions for 359 yards. This is mostly due to two factors: he is backing up the best slot receiver in football, Wes Welker, who has shown to be incredibly durable considering the vicious hits he takes in the middle of the field; and after his rookie season the Patriots drafted two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, whose significant play in the slot have limited Edelman's ability to get on the field. This past season he only played 13.3% of the offensive snaps, according to Mike Reiss of ESPN. Even though his statistics are not impressive, Welker's contract situation is still up in the air and it is definitely beneficial having someone on the team who Brady trusts and has shown he can step into Welker's shoes and fill them out nicely (see playoff game versus the Ravens in 2009).

Edelman took over returning punts from Welker in 2010 and since then he has been slightly above average; he ranked 13th in the league this past season with an average of 10.3 yards per return, and took one to the house against Kansas City. He doesn't make special teams units afraid like Devin Hester, but he is a solid contributor.

Finally, if all goes well Edelman should never take another snap on defense. Even after Troy Brown's impressive stint at defensive back in the 2004 championship season, he was not called upon again. Still this does add to his value slightly in that it proves he is a team player and, although this sounds cliche, he is a "football player." By that I mean he loves the game and will do anything that is asked of him, a trait the Patriots covet.

Proposed Contract: $3.7M/3 years, $800k guaranteed
This contract is fairly similar to the one just offered to Matthew Slater. Slater's is a bit higher, but I gave him that nod as he is the captain of the special teams unit and is one of the best special teams coverage players in the NFL (3rd in special teams tackles). Edelman does many things above average, but nothing outstanding. He is not irreplaceable, but he provides definite value, including leverage against Welker. This is cap friendly deal for the Patriots as his cap hit is never larger than $1.4M, yet Edelman makes more than twice what he has over the past four years.



Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB/S Sterling Moore

AP Photo/Winslow Townson
Exclusive Rights Free Agent in 2013


Sterling Moore is most well known among Patriots fans for his controversial, yet spectacular, play in the endzone against Lee Evans at the end of the AFC Championship game. It is difficult to evaluate Sterling Moore's play because he wasn't on the field much for the Patriots. Due to the multiple injuries in the defensive backfield last year, the Patriots were constantly shuffling people around, particularly at safety. Sterling, along with Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater, and Sergio Brown all took snaps at Chung's FS spot, while Antwan Molden, Julian Edelman, and Sterling again took over the corner position several time. Moore really started to come into favor towards the end of the season and in the playoffs. He had 8 passes defended, including 2 interceptions, in the last 4 games (including 3 playoff games).

He does not have great size, 5'10", and is best suited in the slot backing up Arrington with the flexibility to play safety. Moore is not a lock to make the roster and needs to continue to produce on the field to stick around, but he has shown promise and he is a young player who the Patriots can keep for little to no financial risk.

Exclusive Rights Tender: $555k

Proposed Contract: $1.9M/2 years, $500k guaranteed, $1M in escalators
If Sterling is able to stay on the team this upcoming season, he is almost guaranteed to receive the exclusive rights tender. The question is whether or not he receives an extension before the start of the 2013 season, or if he plays under the tender and becomes a restricted free agent for 2014. I based this proposed contract almost exclusively on the one Kyle Arrington signed before the 2010 season, as I see many similarities in their situation.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB Kyle Arrington



Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013
Kyle Arrington is in an interesting place from a contract perspective. On the one hand, he was one of the few bright spots in New England's secondary this past season. He was a sure tackler, placing second on the team in total tackles with 88, including 66 solo, and was 9th best among all defensive backs in broken tackle rate (source,  Patrick Chung was 7th). He was the teams best pass defender, leading the league with 7 interceptions and the team with 15 passes defended. 


On the other hand, coming into the season Arrington was expected to be fourth on the Patriots depth chart at cornerback behind Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, and Ras-I Dowling. Unfortunately, due to the regressed play from Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden being cut, and the season ending injury to Ras-I Dowling, Arrington was forced into a starting role in the secondary. While he performed adequately this past season, he has not done it consistently. He was a significant liability two years ago, and if Ras-I Dowling comes back healthy this year, he is likely to usurp Arrington as the starter.


This then leads to the question, do the Patriots pay him starter money or not. The Patriots tend to be particularly frugal at the cornerback position; and as last year showed they're not afraid give significant reps to players from the scrap heap or even offense. (see: Antwan Molden, Sterling Moore, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater) Arrington fits better in the slot as his smaller size (5'10") can be a liability against bigger receivers. Alfonzo Dennard, a 7th round draft pick, has the skills to compete for the starting slot job, but will likely be expected to add depth instead.


Finally, not to be disregarded Arrington is a consistent and solid contributor on special teams.


Proposed New Contract: $6.5M/2 years, $2M guaranteed, $1.5M in escalators
To quickly clarify this contract, I imagine Arrington receiving a $2M signing bonus (the guaranteed amount), a $2M base salary in 2013 and $2.5M in 2014, with the possibility of both of those salary numbers increasing (the $1.5M in escalators) based on incentives such as play time, being voted to the Pro Bowl, and/or getting a certain number of interceptions.

Ultimately, the value of this contract and whether Arrington signs it is going to depend heavily on two things: his play this upcoming season, and Ras-I Dowling's health. If the Ras-I Dowling stays healthy and plays well,  I would not be surprised to see Kyle Arrington walk in free agency. I think the Patriots would have more leverage in that situation and they would try to get away with underpaying him. They have replacement options in Alfonzo Dennard and Sterling Moore and can address his leaving in free agency or the draft.

However, if Dowling continues to have health issues and/or Moore and Dennard are unable to contribute, the Patriots may have to sweeten the deal to keep him around.

Monday, June 25, 2012

New Page: Glossary

I've come to the realization that it might be helpful to have a glossary of phrases that I frequently use on this blog. This off-season I have been using a broad vocabulary related to contracts that are definitely not layman terms, so I will do my best to keep the glossary updated. I will continue to add to it terms that I think are not considered general knowledge. As usual, any input on which terms I should elaborate on would be appreciated.